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评论 2
如何一次更新使CS2皮肤市场崩溃近二十亿美元
2 周
我之前经历过崩盘，令人着迷的是那种"价格下跌，便宜卖出以便快速出售"的心态，当然我也做过一些糟糕的投资，但看看我在CS2和TF2中的一些物品，人们竟然以其价值的5%出售物品——这真的不值得。
我总是和船一起沉没，在任何时候要么：
- 它没有跌到让我担心的程度
- 它跌得太多，损失很大，我想看看最后会怎样
我曾经在重大投资上有过显著的损失，而当时的崩盘对我来说是显而易见的，那种突然的崩盘是因为它是突然的，而不是因为它会死。当然会有一些突然崩盘导致事物消亡的例子，但你应该多样化持有，并认识到这是一种赌博。我完全接受我的价值每年翻倍是有风险的。
如果CS2死掉，一切现在都毫无价值，我会损失很多，我现在的10%损失已经很多了，我会比那个因为失去一部分而自杀的中国人损失得更多。我当然会感到沮丧，但这就是赌博，仅仅因为我意识到箱子是相对安全的，我知道事情可能会结束。虽然我有点像是在玩虚拟货币，我十年前花了大约400英镑，自那以后通过交易和持有物品（主要是箱子和箱子，我有一系列装满物品的Steam账户）我已经以Steam Deck和游戏的形式拿回了我的400英镑，所以我现在的价值有点像是虚构的。这是我十年前的一些选择所带来的钱，如果我失去它，我仍然玩得很开心。
我在加密货币方面有过类似的经历，我从来没有用钱买过任何加密货币，我从21.co（后来变成coinbase learn）获得了一些BTC，然后我只是用加密货币交换加密货币（比用加密货币换法币机会多得多，更容易做机器人，费用也更低，只有0.5%）。我损失了一些，但我从来没有投入自己的钱，我在交易中玩得很开心，然后我感到无聊，就把我的收益存储在BTC中，时间帮了我——BTC是如此毫无价值，它作为货币失败了，只让所有加密货币看起来像个笑话，我们被卖了快速和便宜支付的承诺，而你必须等待50-120分钟才能完成一笔交易，费用是5美元，如果你没有为交易支付足够的费用，最后可能会失败，所以你在赌博你能便宜到什么程度。我没想到在我第一次获得和出售之间，BTC的价值会上涨超过100M%，这毫无意义。
我总是和船一起沉没，在任何时候要么：
- 它没有跌到让我担心的程度
- 它跌得太多，损失很大，我想看看最后会怎样
我曾经在重大投资上有过显著的损失，而当时的崩盘对我来说是显而易见的，那种突然的崩盘是因为它是突然的，而不是因为它会死。当然会有一些突然崩盘导致事物消亡的例子，但你应该多样化持有，并认识到这是一种赌博。我完全接受我的价值每年翻倍是有风险的。
如果CS2死掉，一切现在都毫无价值，我会损失很多，我现在的10%损失已经很多了，我会比那个因为失去一部分而自杀的中国人损失得更多。我当然会感到沮丧，但这就是赌博，仅仅因为我意识到箱子是相对安全的，我知道事情可能会结束。虽然我有点像是在玩虚拟货币，我十年前花了大约400英镑，自那以后通过交易和持有物品（主要是箱子和箱子，我有一系列装满物品的Steam账户）我已经以Steam Deck和游戏的形式拿回了我的400英镑，所以我现在的价值有点像是虚构的。这是我十年前的一些选择所带来的钱，如果我失去它，我仍然玩得很开心。
我在加密货币方面有过类似的经历，我从来没有用钱买过任何加密货币，我从21.co（后来变成coinbase learn）获得了一些BTC，然后我只是用加密货币交换加密货币（比用加密货币换法币机会多得多，更容易做机器人，费用也更低，只有0.5%）。我损失了一些，但我从来没有投入自己的钱，我在交易中玩得很开心，然后我感到无聊，就把我的收益存储在BTC中，时间帮了我——BTC是如此毫无价值，它作为货币失败了，只让所有加密货币看起来像个笑话，我们被卖了快速和便宜支付的承诺，而你必须等待50-120分钟才能完成一笔交易，费用是5美元，如果你没有为交易支付足够的费用，最后可能会失败，所以你在赌博你能便宜到什么程度。我没想到在我第一次获得和出售之间，BTC的价值会上涨超过100M%，这毫无意义。
评论已翻译 显示原文 (EN)显示翻译 (ZH-CN)
I've been in the middle of crashes before and it is fascinating the mentality of "it's dropping in price, sell it cheaply to sell it fast", sure I've made some bad bets, but looking at some of the items I have in both CS2 and TF2 people have sold items for 5% of their value — it's really not worth it.
I always sink with the ship, at any point either:
- it hasn't dropped enough to be concerned about
- it has dropped so much the losses are big and I want to see where it ends up
The times that I've had significant money on the line and there was a crash to death, it's been clear to me prior, and that sudden crashes crash because it was sudden not because it's going to die. There are of course going to be examples of sudden crashes killing things, but you should diversify holdings, and recognise this is gambling. I fully accept that my value doubling every year comes with risks.
If CS2 were to die, everything is now worth nothing, I'd lose a lot, my 10% losses right now are a lot, I'd lose far more than the Chinese guy who killed himself when he lost a portion with no way to gain it back. I'd certainly be upset, but, this is gambling and just because I recognise that cases is pretty safe I know things can just end. I am kinda playing with fake money tho, I spent around £400 over a decade ago, since then through trading and just holding onto items (primarily crates and cases, I have a collection of Steam accounts filled with items) I've got my £400 back in the form of a Steam Deck and games, and so the value I have now is kinda pretend. It's money I only have due to some choices a decade ago, and if I lose it I still had fun.
I had a similar experience with crypto, I never bought any crypto for money, I got some BTC from 21.co (which became coinbase learn) and then I just traded crypto for crypto (way more opportunities than crypto for fiat, easier to make a bot for and lower fees only 0.5%). I lost chunks, but I never put in any of my own money and I had fun trading, and then I got bored and just stored my gains in BTC and time helped me out — BTC is so worthless, it fails as a currency and just makes all crypto look like a joke, we were sold a promise of quick and cheap payments and you have to wait 50-120 minutes for a transaction which costs $5 to make and by the end it might fail if you didn't pay enough for the transaction so you're gambling on how cheap you can go. I didn't expect to see BTC rise in value by +100M% between getting my first and selling, makes no sense
I always sink with the ship, at any point either:
- it hasn't dropped enough to be concerned about
- it has dropped so much the losses are big and I want to see where it ends up
The times that I've had significant money on the line and there was a crash to death, it's been clear to me prior, and that sudden crashes crash because it was sudden not because it's going to die. There are of course going to be examples of sudden crashes killing things, but you should diversify holdings, and recognise this is gambling. I fully accept that my value doubling every year comes with risks.
If CS2 were to die, everything is now worth nothing, I'd lose a lot, my 10% losses right now are a lot, I'd lose far more than the Chinese guy who killed himself when he lost a portion with no way to gain it back. I'd certainly be upset, but, this is gambling and just because I recognise that cases is pretty safe I know things can just end. I am kinda playing with fake money tho, I spent around £400 over a decade ago, since then through trading and just holding onto items (primarily crates and cases, I have a collection of Steam accounts filled with items) I've got my £400 back in the form of a Steam Deck and games, and so the value I have now is kinda pretend. It's money I only have due to some choices a decade ago, and if I lose it I still had fun.
I had a similar experience with crypto, I never bought any crypto for money, I got some BTC from 21.co (which became coinbase learn) and then I just traded crypto for crypto (way more opportunities than crypto for fiat, easier to make a bot for and lower fees only 0.5%). I lost chunks, but I never put in any of my own money and I had fun trading, and then I got bored and just stored my gains in BTC and time helped me out — BTC is so worthless, it fails as a currency and just makes all crypto look like a joke, we were sold a promise of quick and cheap payments and you have to wait 50-120 minutes for a transaction which costs $5 to make and by the end it might fail if you didn't pay enough for the transaction so you're gambling on how cheap you can go. I didn't expect to see BTC rise in value by +100M% between getting my first and selling, makes no sense
2 周
CS2市场有点疯狂，但赚钱的最好方法是买箱子。我拥有装满成千上万箱子的储物单元。我目前大约亏损10%（仅考虑箱子），但我预计几个月后会持平。我从未理解刀子的意义，人们几乎看不到它们，我更乐意以低价购买箱子，然后在几年后以1000%的投资回报率出售，你可以以每个$0.25购买CS2箱子，然后以每个$3出售。
在TF2中情况更疯狂（但风险更大，因为游戏是否会消亡从未明确），你可以在Steam市场上以每个武器1个（450/$）或$0.03（33/$）的价格购买箱子，然后以每个$2出售，获得100000%的投资回报率，我以每个0.11ref（225/$）购买了机密收藏箱和隔离收藏箱，然后以每个$15出售，获得340000%的投资回报率。
然而，我从“崩盘”中获益匪浅，因为由于隐秘武器价值飙升，我的价值也随之上涨，我随后用这些资金购买更多箱子，因为它们的价格下跌，我目前上涨了大约10%，我购买的额外箱子将使增长速度变得不那么糟糕。我处于一个长期投资的状态，因此任何价值的损失都不会困扰我，哦不，我现在必须等5年而不是4年。
我认为这种情况在长期内不会有太大变化，因为刀子价值的下降被隐秘价格的上涨所抵消，而价值的下降又被刀子数量的增加所抵消。还有可能这种价格的下降会吸引更多人参与CS2交易，刀子的数量增加在买家数量增加的情况下，事情最终会加速。我认识很多人，他们购买了第一把刀，现在这波刀子的交易已经结束，他们将看到他们的刀子升值。
我不应该说恐惧的坏话，但不去看事情的全貌是非常短视的。这篇文章发布已经4天，情况已经显著反弹。损失是暂时的，现在市场大约下跌了25%，所以他们的损失现在更像是$10k，我打赌到年底损失将接近0，给它12个月，至少会有+25%。虽然我会在这里等待我的成千上万的箱子，期待+75-100%的收益。
在TF2中情况更疯狂（但风险更大，因为游戏是否会消亡从未明确），你可以在Steam市场上以每个武器1个（450/$）或$0.03（33/$）的价格购买箱子，然后以每个$2出售，获得100000%的投资回报率，我以每个0.11ref（225/$）购买了机密收藏箱和隔离收藏箱，然后以每个$15出售，获得340000%的投资回报率。
然而，我从“崩盘”中获益匪浅，因为由于隐秘武器价值飙升，我的价值也随之上涨，我随后用这些资金购买更多箱子，因为它们的价格下跌，我目前上涨了大约10%，我购买的额外箱子将使增长速度变得不那么糟糕。我处于一个长期投资的状态，因此任何价值的损失都不会困扰我，哦不，我现在必须等5年而不是4年。
我认为这种情况在长期内不会有太大变化，因为刀子价值的下降被隐秘价格的上涨所抵消，而价值的下降又被刀子数量的增加所抵消。还有可能这种价格的下降会吸引更多人参与CS2交易，刀子的数量增加在买家数量增加的情况下，事情最终会加速。我认识很多人，他们购买了第一把刀，现在这波刀子的交易已经结束，他们将看到他们的刀子升值。
我不应该说恐惧的坏话，但不去看事情的全貌是非常短视的。这篇文章发布已经4天，情况已经显著反弹。损失是暂时的，现在市场大约下跌了25%，所以他们的损失现在更像是$10k，我打赌到年底损失将接近0，给它12个月，至少会有+25%。虽然我会在这里等待我的成千上万的箱子，期待+75-100%的收益。
评论已翻译 显示原文 (EN)显示翻译 (ZH-CN)
The CS2 market is a bit nuts but the best way to make money is cases. I own Storage Units filled with thousands of cases. I'm currently down about 10% (just considering cases) but I expect to be level in a couple months. I never got the point of knives, people barely get to see them, I am more than happy to buy up cases for cheap and sell them for 1'000% ROI after a few years, you can buy CS2 cases for $0.25/ea and then sell them for $3/ea.
With TF2 it's even wilder (but riskier, as it's never clear if the game will die), you can buy crates for 1 weapon each (450/$) or $0.03 (33/$) on Steam Marketplace and then sell them for $2/ea for a 100'000% ROI, I bought Confidential Collection Cases and Quarantined Collection Cases for 0.11ref each (225/$) and sold them for $15/ea for 340'000% ROI.
However, I've massively benefited from the "crash" as my value has jumped up due to Covert weapons spiking in value, which I then put into buying more cases as they've dropped in price, I'm up about 10%, and the added cases I've bought will make the slower growth not as bad. I am in a position where I'm in it for the long term and so any loss in value doesn't bother me, oh no I'll have to wait 5 years now rather than 4 years.
I don't see this changing much long term, as the drop in knife value is countered by the rise in covert price, and the decreased value is countered by increased quantity of knives. There's also the chance that this drop in price brings more people to CS2 trading and the increased quantity of knives is under the increased number of buyers and things end up escalating faster. I know a lot of people who have bought their first knives, and now that this first big wave of trading for knives is over they're going to see their knives go up in value.
I shouldn't speak ill of the dread, but, it is very short sighted to not just see things through. It's been 4 days since this article was posted and things have rebounded significantly. Losses are temporary, right now the market is down about 25%, so their losses are more like $10k now, I bet that by the end of the year losses will be near 0, give it 12 months and it'll be at least +25%. While I'll be here with my thousands of cases expecting +75-100% gains.
With TF2 it's even wilder (but riskier, as it's never clear if the game will die), you can buy crates for 1 weapon each (450/$) or $0.03 (33/$) on Steam Marketplace and then sell them for $2/ea for a 100'000% ROI, I bought Confidential Collection Cases and Quarantined Collection Cases for 0.11ref each (225/$) and sold them for $15/ea for 340'000% ROI.
However, I've massively benefited from the "crash" as my value has jumped up due to Covert weapons spiking in value, which I then put into buying more cases as they've dropped in price, I'm up about 10%, and the added cases I've bought will make the slower growth not as bad. I am in a position where I'm in it for the long term and so any loss in value doesn't bother me, oh no I'll have to wait 5 years now rather than 4 years.
I don't see this changing much long term, as the drop in knife value is countered by the rise in covert price, and the decreased value is countered by increased quantity of knives. There's also the chance that this drop in price brings more people to CS2 trading and the increased quantity of knives is under the increased number of buyers and things end up escalating faster. I know a lot of people who have bought their first knives, and now that this first big wave of trading for knives is over they're going to see their knives go up in value.
I shouldn't speak ill of the dread, but, it is very short sighted to not just see things through. It's been 4 days since this article was posted and things have rebounded significantly. Losses are temporary, right now the market is down about 25%, so their losses are more like $10k now, I bet that by the end of the year losses will be near 0, give it 12 months and it'll be at least +25%. While I'll be here with my thousands of cases expecting +75-100% gains.